Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
